The numbers don't lie: Music becoming a singles market

Meet the new champ: Groban ain't heavy, but he's Oprah's surrogate brother.

In 2007, the recording industry was in an accelerated state of chaos, confusion and flux. Want some empirical evidence? Try this: The best-selling album of last year was a collection of Christmas songs released three weeks before Halloween. Sales of Josh Groban's "Noel" approached 3.7 million copies, beating by nearly 800,000 copies its nearest competitor, the soundtrack to "High School Musical 2."

So what does a music-watcher make out of these numbers and diverging trends? According to one observer, it helps to attack from more than one medium.

"When you look at the top-selling albums," said Bill Crandall, editor-in-chief of AOL Music, "many of them have extra pop-culture ties to them. Josh Groban's album didn't debut very high, and it wasn't until Oprah took him under her wing and started pumping that album that it really sold.

"Of course, 'High School Musical' is first and foremost a TV phenomenon more than a music phenomenon. And even 'Daughtry,' which was the breakout rock album of the year: It's no coincidence that he's an 'Idol' alum, someone who was able to get some free marketing done in prime time."

Daughtry is Chris Daughtry, an "American Idol" runner-up in 2006. His self-titled debut album finished No. 5, ahead of another TV megastar, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus.

Some bands without access to a TV show or the benefit of an alter-ego used other methods to promote and distribute their music in 2007.

The Eagles started their own label to release their new album, "Long Road Out of Eden," and then signed an exclusive retail deal with Wal-Mart. The plan apparently paid off. "Long Road" finished No. 3 in sales last year (2.6 million). Some observers have been skeptical of the sales numbers, but Bob Lefsetz wrote in his widely read "Lefsetz Letter": "This is a business of perception, and the perception is the Eagles did something innovative, gave the middle finger to the industry and not only survived, but triumphed."

Crandall said the band triumphed because it tapped into its crossover appeal.

"I was in Nashville for the CMAs and the Eagles got some of the biggest cheers of the night," he said. "They're a rock band with some twangy elements but not by any means a country band. They realized they have more of an audience in the country/Wal-Mart public than with the mainstream rock and roll audience."

Most famously, Radiohead gave its fans a chance to download the entire "In Rainbows" CD for whatever fans wanted to pay - starting with nothing. Millions of fans took them up on the offer, and a majority paid nothing for it.

The band released the standard CD version of the album in the United States on Jan. 1. In the United Kingdom, where it was released on New Year's Eve, the CD charted No. 1 the week of its release. Official sales numbers in the U.S. weren't available until today. However, some retail outlets broke the Jan. 1 sales embargo and began selling the CD the last weekend of December. It subsequently cracked the "Billboard 200" charts for that week (at No. 157), selling about 9,000 copies.

"Even if (the CD) does well," Crandall said, "it doesn't mean it's a model for everyone.You might do it for this Radiohead album, but the next one? Then for Coldplay or Travis? I don't know."

For the most part, the numbers behind the year in music confirm that the business continues to go digital in a hurry. Sales of digital tracks are up 45 percent from 2006, and the bands and artists behind those numbers illustrate the generation gap that's feeding the trend.

The Top 10 selling artists overall in all formats in 2007 include Groban, Rascal Flatts, Carrie Underwood, Michael Buble and Tim McGraw - artist who still sell lots of CDs, which are still the top-selling music format. And three of those artists are in country music, which sustains loyal audiences of all ages.

"Country records," Lefsetz wrote, "don't enter at No. 1 and fall off the chart like those of every other genre."

On the digital side, the top-selling artists include Fergie, Timbaland, Rihanna, Justin Timberlake, Akon and Avril Lavigne.

Above: The cash flowed for "Low," from Flo Rida (above) featuring T-Pain.

The top-selling digital songs are skewed even more to a demographic that shops for singles instead of entire albums: Soulja Boy, Plain White T's, Fergie, Timbaland and Rihanna. Music is not only becoming a digital medium, it's becoming a singles club.

Flo Rida set a record in 2007 by selling 467,000 copies of the track "Low feat.T-Pain" its first week. And nearly 3 million people bought Soulja Boy's "Crank That.," making it the No. 1 digital track of 2007.

If the record companies could financially replace what had been happening in record stores with what's happening on line right now, they'd be in great shape," Crandall said. "But that's not the case, and it goes back to the format factor. Buying an entire album is not necessarily the first thing people think of when they like a song. Because you hear an awesome new song by Maroon 5 doesn't mean I have to go buy the entire album. It means I need that song ... on my iPod."

The numbers support that notion: The top-selling digital album, "It Won't Be Soon Before Too Long," by Maroon 5, barely cracked 250,000 copies. And sales of albums combined declined by almost 10 percent from 2006.

Even the artists at the top of the Top 10 have little to gloat about, Crandall said, recalling the days when N'Sync sold more than 2 million copies of "No Strings Attached" its first week. "Compared to 10 years ago," he said, "these are pretty paltry numbers."

And the future looks even more uncertain for an industry that is as wide open an unsettled as the Wild West. Going on "Oprah" may help a star like Groban turn "Noel" into Christmas platinum, but neither she nor TV in general is the remedy for everyone. If you want to be popular, Lefsetz writes, it helps not to be edgy, and for the most part the sales charts confirm that. The Grammys loved Amy Winehouse, but her album "Back to Black" finished No. 27 in the final Billboard 200 chart.

"If you want to sell middle-of-the-road stuiff, go to Oprah," he writes. "If you want to promote cutting-edge music that will pay dividends for decades, there's no TV outlet that'll touch you. TV won't understand. And radio probably won't either."

And even if you have access to TV, your success isn't guaranteed in this business.

Six weeks after it was released, the self-titled debut of "American Idol" winner Jordin Sparks has fallen to No. 40 on the charts. Her runner-up isn't faring any better. "Audio Day Dream" by Blake Lewis is at No. 76 and sinking.

| Timothy Finn, The Star

Comments

[jeff holmes]

Amy Winehouse? Not in the top 200? Sad...... But if you don't read music periodicals or have some music know how, she'll never have a chance. Where can you hear her on the radio..... no where. In the good old day's (before super niche radio) you could hear her on many different types of stations. I'm bummed.....

[Tim Finn]

She's on their, Jeff. But not in the Top 25. (No. 27) I read somewhere that if you count world-wide sales, "Back to Black" was one of the best-selling albums of the year. It hit 1 million over here, but not until late in the year and well-behind a bunch of inferior albums.

[pfetters]

I bought "Back in Black" and enjoyed it enough. But Amy Winehouse will never have a big, sustained career with her sound - she'll end up like the Sqirrel Nut Zippers and Big Bad Voodoo Daddy.

The thing is, with the current state of digital recording technology, artists can make their own records and release them independently for relatively little money. One of my favorite artists, Brian Vander Ark, has done just that with 3 solo albums. Of course, you have to have something of a fan base for such a venture, and hope for lots of word of mouth.

I, personally, have no problem weeding out the middle man record company guys.

[sleepy]

And props to Flo Rida for the excellent Jimi tat.

[Tim Finn]

We've got a story coming up on some of the drastic plans a few bands/artists have up their sleeve to reach fans with their music, without the help of labels. And speaking of talented songwriters doing it on their own, Todd Snider is on the way (see above).

[sincitydisciple]

"On the digital side, the top-selling artists include Fergie, Timbaland, Rihanna, Justin Timberlake, Akon and Avril Lavigne."

The anonymity of the internet makes it easier to buy music online, that you would never buy in a bricks and mortar store. Just like the old days when you would buy from Columbia House for a penny, because you couldn't handle the walk of shame to the counter at 7th Heaven with a Hootie cd in hand (don't laugh... someone had to buy ump-teen million copies of that cd)

[RaiderHawk]

... and porn, too (so I hear).